Recently, many people in Syria have talked about the Syrian Lira (SYP). On the streets, in cafés, and on social media, there is a lot of buzz. Some feel hopeful, thinking the economy might be getting better. Others are unsure and wonder if these changes will last or just fade away. 

So, what is really going on with the SYP(Lira)? 

Let’s look at the reasons behind its value and see if the rise can stay strong or if it is just a short moment.

Is the Surge Speculative or Sustainable?

Understanding whether the recent rise in the Syrian Lira (SYP) is driven by genuine economic improvement or merely speculation is crucial for anyone following Syria’s financial future. To do this, we first need to define what a surge means, examine how social media shapes perceptions, analyze trader behavior, consider historical examples, and assess the risks involved.

• What Does a “Surge” Mean? A surge in the Syrian Lira’s value refers to a significant increase in its worth compared to major foreign currencies such as the US Dollar (USD) or the Euro (EUR). For example, if the exchange rate moves from 13,000 SYP per USD down to 9,000 SYP per USD, the Lira has appreciated considerably. Such changes affect everyday life: imports become cheaper, people’s purchasing power may improve, and overall economic optimism can rise. However, the key question remains—does this surge reflect true economic progress, or is it temporary?
• Influence of Social Media and Forums: In Syria, information about exchange rates and economic developments spreads quickly through social media channels like Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram. These platforms allow rumors and unverified reports to circulate rapidly. While this can help keep people informed, it also creates an environment ripe for speculation. Traders and investors may react to hype or false information, fueling short-lived buying or selling sprees that push the currency value up or down without any real changes in the economy.
• Analyzing Trader Behavior: Recent fluctuations in the SYP, such as a drop from 13,200 to 7,500 per USD, followed by a rebound, suggest speculative activity rather than fundamental economic improvements. Factors like liquidity constraints and a lack of clear monetary policy contribute to this volatility, allowing speculators to dominate the market.
• Historical Context: Other countries have experienced similar scenarios. The Lebanese Pound and Venezuelan Bolívar, for example, saw short-lived rallies driven by speculation, only to face renewed depreciation due to weak economic fundamentals.
• Risks of Misinformation: In such an environment, misinformation can lead to bubbles and market shocks. When currency values are driven more by hype than by economic indicators, there’s a risk of sudden corrections that can harm both investors and the general populace.

Export Growth and Regional Trade Realities

Syria’s ability to reengage with regional markets plays an important role in shaping the value of its currency. When exports increase and trade relationships strengthen, it can generate demand for the Syrian Lira and support currency stability. However, the real impact depends on the volume of trade, the strength of key industries, and whether regional partnerships are consistent and sustainable.

• Impact of Sanctions and Trade Re-engagement: The partial lifting of sanctions has opened doors for Syria to reengage with regional markets, particularly Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. For instance, Jordanian exports to Syria increased by 40% in early 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a revival in bilateral trade.
• Key Export Sectors: Syria’s primary exports include agriculture (notably olive oil and cotton), textiles, and raw materials. However, challenges like political instability, inconsistent policies, and infrastructure issues hinder the full potential of these sectors. For example, despite a forecasted 11% increase in olive harvests, policy changes and instability have made olive oil exports uncertain.
• Assessing Trade Volume and Currency Demand: While there’s noticeable improvement, the scale of export growth isn’t yet substantial enough to generate sustained demand for the SYP or to fundamentally alter its trajectory. Additionally, factors like increased customs duties and informal cross-border trade complicate the situation, often leading to higher consumer prices and limited formal currency inflows.

Role of Expats and Remittance Inflows

One of the most reliable sources of foreign currency in Syria today comes from Syrians living abroad. The remittances they send back home not only help support families but also play a critical role in keeping the economy afloat. These money transfers can influence the demand for local currency, impact exchange rates, and provide short-term financial relief. But while remittances offer temporary stability, they are not a long-term solution for currency strength or economic growth. 

Let’s examine how important these inflows are, what trends shape them, and their true impact on the Syrian Lira.

• Significance of the Syrian Diaspora: Remittances from Syrians abroad, especially from Europe, the Gulf, and the US, are a crucial source of foreign currency. They help stabilize the exchange rate by increasing the supply of hard currency in the local market.
• Recent Trends: The easing of financial restrictions and reduced sanctions are expected to facilitate remittance flows. However, the black market and speculative activities continue to erode their value. For instance, during a brief appreciation of the SYP, remittances lost up to 40% of their value due to rapid exchange rate swings.
• Remittances: A Temporary Stabilizer: While remittances provide short-term support, they don’t address systemic economic weaknesses. Their impact is limited to temporary stabilization rather than driving sustainable currency appreciation.

Central Bank Policy Shifts in 2025

The Central Bank of Syria remains a crucial player in shaping the currency’s direction. However, in 2025, its actions have reflected a limited and reactive stance rather than proactive monetary leadership. Several key developments help explain the current strategy and its impact on the Syrian Lira.

• Monetary Policy and Currency Management: The Syrian central bank has largely adopted a passive approach, restricting liquidity, imposing withdrawal limits, and refraining from significant intervention in the exchange market. This stance has fueled speculation and contributed to exchange rate volatility.
• Efforts Toward Currency Stabilization: There’s limited evidence of a shift toward a controlled float or significant accumulation of foreign reserves. The central bank’s lack of transparency and inconsistent policies have undermined confidence among investors and the general public.
• Modernization Initiatives and External Support: The new government has pledged reforms, including digitalization and anti-corruption measures. However, tangible results remain limited. As of mid-2025, there’s no indication that Syria has secured substantial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or regional economic advisory bodies.

Influence of Peace Talks and Diplomatic Relations

Syria’s economic outlook—and by extension, the future of the Syrian Lira (SYP)—is deeply tied to the country’s political trajectory. As peace talks continue and diplomatic relationships evolve, investor sentiment and foreign involvement are shifting. But are these changes enough to support a sustainable rise in the SYP?

• Progress in Peace Negotiations: UN-sponsored peace talks and efforts to normalize relations with Arab League members, including Saudi Arabia, have improved investor sentiment. These developments have raised hopes for reconstruction aid and foreign investment.
• Economic Confidence and Foreign Aid: While diplomatic progress is crucial for rebuilding trust and attracting investment, the translation of political gains into concrete economic benefits has been slow. The link between peace, investor sentiment, and currency strength is evident, but without sustained policy reforms and investment, any surge in the SYP is likely to be short-lived.

Conclusion:

The ups and downs of the Syrian Lira show how tricky the situation really is. Sometimes, hope and quick trades make the currency go up for a little while. But for the Lira to stay strong for a long time, more than just hope is needed. Good economic plans, real growth in exports, steady money from Syrians living abroad, smart decisions from the central bank, and lasting peace with neighbors all need to happen. Without these things, any rise in the Lira will probably not last, and people will be left hoping for more than what the numbers show.

The future of the Syrian Lira depends on building trust, bringing stability, and making a future that people can believe in and want to support.