If someone told you a year ago that the Syrian Pound (SYP) would gain value against the US Dollar, you probably wouldn’t have believed it. After all, Syria’s economy has been through years of turmoil—crippling inflation, devastating war, and some of the toughest sanctions in the world. The idea of the SYP strengthening seemed completely out of reach.

And yet, here we are in 2025, watching the Syrian Pound make a surprising comeback.

Over the past few months, the SYP has been gaining ground in black market exchanges and even showing signs of stability in semi-official channels. It’s caught everyone’s attention—from ordinary Syrians trying to make sense of daily prices to economists and traders wondering if something big is brewing.

So, what’s going on?

Is this sudden strength just a short-lived bubble sparked by social media hype and tighter government controls? Or is it the beginning of a real shift in Syria’s economic direction, thanks to changing trade dynamics, refugee return flows, and a push to move away from the dollar?

Let’s break it down and take a closer look at what’s driving the Syrian Pound’s rise—and what it could mean for the country’s future.

Supply and Demand Factors in Parallel Markets

While Syria operates with an official exchange rate, it’s the black market that sets the real tone of the currency’s value. Over the last several months, the dynamic between dollar supply and SYP demand has shifted dramatically in these parallel markets.

• Restricted Dollar Supply: Sanctions once allowed for loopholes that let dollars enter the Syrian economy via neighboring countries and informal channels. But tighter enforcement in 2025—especially in Lebanon and Jordan—has slowed this flow. Additionally, the Central Bank has cracked down on unlicensed currency dealers, making it harder for dollars to circulate on the street. With fewer dollars available, their value on the black market has increased—but interestingly, not enough to keep up with the rising demand for SYP.
• Rising Demand for the Syrian Pound: Local businesses, especially in construction and retail, are increasingly required to use the Syrian Pound for transactions. From paying suppliers to buying raw materials, there’s been a visible shift toward SYP. This is especially true for domestic contracts and real estate deals, which are now more often settled in local currency rather than dollars or euros.
• Government Crackdowns: The Syrian government has intensified pressure on illegal exchange activity. Police raids on currency dealers and public shaming campaigns have made many wary of hoarding or trading in dollars. While fear isn’t a sustainable long-term policy, it has temporarily boosted demand for SYP and discouraged speculative attacks.
• Seasonal Spending: Like many Middle Eastern economies, Syria experiences cash flow spikes around religious and national holidays. During Ramadan, Eid, and even during the back-to-school season, households tend to withdraw and circulate more local currency. This seasonal increase in SYP circulation contributes to its short-term strength.

Oil & Gas Deals in Regional Currencies

One of the most underestimated factors behind the SYP’s rise is Syria’s quiet participation in the region-wide shift away from the US dollar.

• Shift Away from USD in Trade: Following the lead of BRICS nations and regional partners like Iran and the UAE, Syria has started settling oil, gas, and infrastructure-related deals in local and regional currencies. The UAE dirham, Iranian rial, Turkish lira, and even Iraqi dinar are now being used in contracts that previously required dollars. This reduces Syria’s need to source USD for imports and transactions, thereby easing pressure on the black-market dollar demand.
• De-dollarization Trends: Across the Middle East, many countries are diversifying their currency reserves and trade settlements. Syria is no exception. With support from countries like China and Russia, and inspired by BRICS’ global messaging, Damascus is cautiously moving away from its historic dollar dependency.
• Barter and Local Currency Deals: In several bilateral agreements, Syria has adopted barter systems. For example, it may export agricultural goods to Iran in exchange for fuel or medical supplies—no dollars involved. These alternative models reduce the country’s reliance on USD, which historically drove inflation and black-market volatility.

Influence of Refugee Return and Spending

Another lesser-known driver of the Syrian Pound’s strength is the gradual return of Syrian refugees—and the money they’re bringing back with them.

• Capital Inflows from Returnees: Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have begun returning home from Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and parts of Europe. While not all are wealthy, many bring years’ worth of savings in foreign currencies. Once inside Syria, they convert their funds into SYP to buy homes, start businesses, or support families. These conversions directly boost demand for the Syrian Pound.
• Real Estate Rebuilding: The real estate market is one of the first stops for returning Syrians. Demand for housing, construction materials, and land has risen. Since most real estate transactions are now conducted in SYP (either by regulation or seller preference), this creates additional upward pressure on the currency.
• Boost in Consumer Spending: Returnees often engage in high-volume purchases—appliances, furniture, vehicles, and services. Since these are now increasingly priced in SYP, every purchase strengthens the local currency’s position.
• Restored Trust: Perhaps most important is the psychological shift. Many returnees, especially from Lebanon and Jordan, report greater comfort using the SYP again. They view the local economy as more stable than before and are less likely to demand payment in foreign currencies.

Reduced Dollarization Trends

The Syrian economy has long been “dollarized,” meaning people saved, transacted, and priced goods in USD. But that trend is now reversing.

• Government Incentives for Using SYP: The Central Bank of Syria is encouraging all sectors to use the national currency. Public salaries are paid in SYP, and subsidies are linked to spending in local currency. Government contracts must now be priced in SYP as well.
• Crackdown on USD Pricing: Retailers, car dealerships, and service providers are no longer allowed to quote prices in dollars. Violators risk fines, license suspensions, or even jail time. This regulatory pressure is pushing the economy back toward its national currency.
• Legal Risk of Holding USD: New laws classify unreported foreign currency holdings as acts of economic sabotage. This has discouraged both individuals and businesses from keeping large USD reserves, leading to a gradual shift back toward SYP usage.
• Behavioral Shift: Over time, people are adjusting. Young entrepreneurs and consumers are growing used to SYP transactions. Mobile payment apps and digital banking platforms have also contributed to this behavioral transformation.

Psychological Momentum and the “Fear of Missing Out”

Beyond economic data, currency movements are often driven by perception. In 2025, the SYP’s rise is as much a story of psychology as it is of policy.

• Social Media Hype: Online platforms have become breeding grounds for SYP optimism. Facebook pages, Telegram groups, and investment forums are celebrating the pound’s recovery. Memes, charts, and testimonials reinforce the idea that the SYP is “coming back.”
• Speculative Investment: Some traders—both inside Syria and in the diaspora—are converting euros, dollars, or dirhams into SYP to speculate on its future rise. These conversions inflate demand and add short-term strength to the currency.
• Risk-Taking by Youth: A new generation of Syrians is engaging in financial speculation. Influenced by cryptocurrency culture and high-risk investing, many believe they can profit by betting on the pound’s appreciation. This behavior, while risky, adds liquidity and confidence to the SYP market.
• Momentum Without Fundamentals: While the trend is real, it’s largely unconnected to industrial growth, trade surpluses, or strong macroeconomic reforms. In that sense, it may resemble a bubble, driven more by hope than hard numbers.

Final Thoughts: 

It’s very clear—the Syrian Pound’s recent strength isn’t just a fluke. There’s real movement behind it: stricter dollar controls, a shift toward regional currencies, returning refugees bringing cash, and a sense of cautious national optimism.

But here’s the catch—it’s still a fragile recovery.

Syria’s economy is far from healed. Sanctions, corruption, weak institutions, and limited foreign investment continue to weigh it down. Unless those deeper issues are addressed with bold reforms and a clear economic plan, this currency rally might fade just as quickly as it appeared.

Right now, perception and policy are doing the heavy lifting. But to keep the SYP strong, Syria needs something more solid, like stronger exports, real production growth, and a transparent central bank that people can trust.

Analysis shows it will take the next 6 to 12 months! What’s your opinion?

If Syria can build on this momentum and turn it into real, lasting progress, the rise of the pound could be the start of an economic turning point. But if not—if the fundamentals don’t catch up—another wave of inflation and currency collapse could be just around the corner.

Time will tell. But for now, the Syrian Pound is standing a little taller—and the world is watching.